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The shutdowns of 2020 created a perfect storm for the housing market — and supercharged the clash between Wall Street and regular homebuyers. Given the attention these markets received during the pandemic, it's no wonder that the battle between Wall Street and Main Street became the dominant story of COVID-era homebuying. Advertisement"If Wall Street was really gobbling up Main Street," Sharga told me, "we would see homeownership rates go down." Wall Street landlords have also been increasingly selling off homes to regular people, a Business Insider analysis found. Still circlingWhile average homebuyers have staged a comeback over the past three years, Wall Street isn't ready to jump out of the housing market altogether.
Persons: homebuyers, That's, Wall, elbowed, Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company, they're, who've, Axios, Sharga, CoreLogic, Pretium —, John Voorheis, Voorheis, , Freddie Mac, James Rodriguez Organizations: Rage, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Parcl Labs, Labs, National Association of Realtors, Wall Street, Investor, Wall, Tricon, Associates, Investors, Center for Economic Studies, Census Locations: Phoenix, Chicago, homebuilders, homeownership, Dallas, Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta
Indianapolis; Carmel, Indiana; Anderson, IndianaMedian rent at the end of 2021: $1,300Median rent at the end of 2022: $1,700Rent increase: 30.8% 2. New Haven, Connecticut; Milford, ConnecticutMedian rent at the end of 2021: $2,250Median rent at the end of 2022: $2,800Rent increase: 24.4% 4. Naples, Florida; Marco Island, FloridaMedian rent at the end of 2021: $5,200Median rent at the end of 2022: $6,448Rent increase: 24.0% 5. Memphis, TennesseeMedian rent at the end of 2021: $1,800Median rent at the end of 2022: $1,695Rent decrease: -5.8% 2. Palm Bay, Florida; Melbourne, Florida; Titusville, FloridaMedian rent at the end of 2021: $2,300Median rent at the end of 2022: $2,200Rent decrease: -4.3% 5.
High mortgage rates and home prices have put the housing market into a deep chill. A Bank of America analyst upgraded real estate stock Zillow from "underperform" to a "buy." A dark cloud is hovering over America's housing market with each week bringing signs of doom and gloom. The rosier view wasn't because of an imminent improvement in the housing market. That's hit Zillow — which earns most of its revenue from lead generation for real estate agents — squarely in the pocket.
Houston has been able to keep its housing affordable in large part because of just this, he said. Jeff Tucker, the chief economist at Zillow, also told Insider that the biggest hurdle to affordable housing was "zoning reform." California has already done this when its citizens voted to pass Proposition 46, which provides funding specifically for affordable housing. It allocated just shy of $1 billion to the multifamily sector, according to CCIM, and is expected to see $13 billion in private funds be pushed into affordable housing. In July, Ginnie Mae, a federally-backed mortgage provider, specifically focused on affordable housing, requested that a manufactured home mortgage program be extended.
It represents the smallest profit since the end of 2019 and the fastest quarterly drop since 2009. With that drop in gross profits, the return on investment fell to 25% from 30% in the previous quarter. With profits shrinking and higher mortgage rates hurting affordability for potential buyers, the share of home sales that were flips fell as well. Mortgage rates have come off their recent highs, but they are still more than twice what they were at the start of this year. Markets that showed the highest flip rates were Phoenix; Spartanburg, South Carolina; Atlanta and Gainesville in Georgia; and Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Last quarter saw the fastest drop in home flipping profits since the Great Recession. down for the Warm and sunny places like Honolulu saw the lowest returns and cities like Buffalo saw the highest. "The high end market has basically vaporized, there's nothing there, " Sharga said, repeating the words of a flipper he knows. Those flippers have healthy profit margins even if the overall dollar amounts aren't as high as with luxury homes, he said. Meanwhile, flippers in cities with harsh winters like Pittsburgh — where the typical flipper made a 116.9% profit — and Buffalo, New York, had the largest returns.
Today's market has tighter lending standards, more assistance programs, and historic levels of homeowner equity compared to downturns of the past. "Historically, normal foreclosure activity means about a single percent of loans are in foreclosure," he told Insider. These initiatives paired with high levels of home equity — roughly $29 trillion as of the second-quarter of the year, according to the Federal Reserve — are likely to prevent an upcoming wave of short sales and foreclosures, Sharga suggests. The spike in foreclosure activity between 2021 and 2022 stems from the expiration of temporary financial safety nets enacted through the CARES Act. But even with this prospect, Sharga suggests that a substantial uptick in foreclosures or short sales is unlikely as many recent homebuyers have positive equity in their homes.
Their presence led to a run-up in housing costs and real estate investor activity. But elevated home prices are "being misinterpreted as a shortage" says Erin Sykes, economist for Nest Seekers. "I'm not convinced there is a housing shortage, more so a mismatch of housing types and locations," she told Insider. According to an October housing report from ATTOM, institutional investors nationwide accounted for only 6.7% of housing inventory in the third-quarter of 2022 — down from the 8.4% seen in Q3 of 2021. As homebuyer and investor activity fades, and more employers call workers back into the office, Sykes says the so-called housing shortage could be on its last leg.
The report — published on Wednesday — is based on data from nearly 600 counties in the US. Nine counties around New York City were included in the top 50 most vulnerable. ATTOM spokesperson says a recession seems 'more likely' than getting inflation under control. On Wednesday, real estate data company, ATTOM Data Solutions, published its Special Housing Risk Report for the second quarter of 2022. The report listed nearly 600 US counties vulnerable to value decline, based on "home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment," the report says.
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